On October 12 we released our 2010 projections for Nevada and its counties they are available through our projection’s page. The news release for them is available from the University of Nevada, Reno’s website by clicking here. The two sources of the projections, the State Demographer’s offices using the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model as a tool and Moody’s.com, are in agreement that we could be seeing a loss in population approaching 54,000 people between now and 2014. The Moody’s.com data presents a scenario of sustained growth returning beginning in 2014. In considering our future and how much these projections portray our future we suggest the user consider five questions.
The Five Questions:
How soon will employment recover for the country as a whole and Nevada in particular?
What kind of jobs will make up any employment recovery and what skills will they require?
How mobile is labor, that is, how willing are people to relocate and do they have the resources to do so? This includes both people moving to Nevada and people emigrating to other areas. While retirees and early retirees may play a role in Nevada’s growth, their ability and desire to relocate to Nevada in sufficient numbers to significantly change our demographic and economic characteristics is uncertain. We are likely to be impacted by people who migrated here during their working years, who are aging here and impacting the need for services.
What economic, social and physical infrastructure is needed to support growth in Nevada?
What capacity is there to fund our infrastructure and how willing are we as a state to invest in our future?